Springboard predicts Christmas traffic will fall short of previous years
While footfall is rising from week to week in the run up to Christmas, increasing by +3.1% last week from the week before, it is significantly reduced from last year with an annual decline of -4.5%. In high streets and shopping centres – which make up the majority of destinations – the drop in footfall was even more severe at -5.2%, with a lesser drop of -2.2% in retail parks. Footfall was down annually on every day last week apart from Sunday when it rose by a huge +26.3%, however, this was in comparison with Sunday last year when the weather was extremely cold with treacherous travelling conditions.
The results are a continuation of the poor performance in November and in the first two weeks of the month, and are a clear indicator that consumers are reining back on spending. Whilst some of the trips previously made to bricks and mortar stores are likely to have been diverted online, the vast majority of spending remains in store; and so the significant decline in footfall is clear evidence that spending this year is constrained. This conclusion is reinforced by the fact that footfall declined in all areas apart from Northern Ireland, and was in excess of -2% in every UK geography and more than -5% in five geographies.
Looking ahead Springboard is forecasting that footfall will decline by -4.2% in December, a greater drop than the -3.5% drop in December last year. It is not unexpected for footfall to decline in December, as it has done so in all but one year since 2009. However, it is anticipated that the drop will increase in magnitude from last year in light of current trading challenges for retailing.
Indeed, the forecast decline in footfall of -4.2% for December follows on from declines in every month this year, with the rate of decline increasing in magnitude in each month since August. In the first half of December the drop in footfall has already reached -4.2%, and footfall is not expected to improve sufficiently in the remaining two weeks in December to reduce the overall decline for the month.
It is anticipated that footfall will decline across all of the three destination types, but that high streets and shopping centres will bear the brunt of the drop in customer activity in bricks and mortar destinations, with drops in footfall of -4.6% and -4.8% respectively, while footfall in retail parks is forecast to drop by -2.6%. While the expected -2.6% drop in footfall in retail parks is lower than that in high streets and shopping centres, it is still greater than the modest drops in retail park footfall in previous years, of -0.7% in December 2016 and -0.6% in December 2017. This greater decline reflects the -2.8% drop in retail park footfall over the first half of the month, but recognises that some consumers might purchase large household items in December in an attempt to outrun possible inflationary pressures that are expected in the run up to Brexit.
