CACI, the data specialists focused on people and place, has unveiled its 2026 predictions for the retail and grocery sector. The analysis highlights a continued acceleration in social commerce, health and performance, and beauty and wellness as the defining growth categories of the year ahead.
Social commerce will continue its rapid expansion throughout 2026, driven by platforms such as TikTok Shop, Facebook Marketplace and Instagram Shopping. Following the arrival of major grocery and retail brands on TikTok Shop in 2025 – including Marks & Spencer, Lidl, and Sainsbury’s – CACI forecasts the platform will continue its path as a major e-commerce platform. Influencer-led marketing is expected to remain a critical driver of conversion, particularly Gen Alpha shoppers, while 46% of Millennials and 63% of Gen Z stated that they have previously purchased good or services from a social media platform according to data from CACI’s Voice of the Nation survey.
Wellness-led purchasing will continue to feature in everyday grocery spend in 2026, with shoppers increasingly prioritising products that support energy, performance and preventative health. The protein-rich foods, supplements and sports nutrition category is also set to continue its expansion throughout the year.
Retailers positioned strongly in health and supplements, such as Holland & Barrett, are expected to benefit from sustained demand, with the brand reporting +7.5% growth for January 2026 year-on-year. Growth is also anticipated across mainstream grocery as protein and functional ranges expand.
CACI also highlights continued momentum in health and beauty, fuelled by the mainstreaming of wellness routines and increased adoption of at home beauty technology. Products such as LED face masks and advanced skincare devices are projected to grow, as consumers seek professional grade results at home.
Men’s skincare is also emerging as a significant growth driver, with CACI identifying rising frequency among male shoppers following brands such as The Ordinary and Kiehl’s broadening the category and attracting buyers.
Alex McCulloch, director at CACI commented: “One of the most important dynamics shaping 2026 is the widening gap between what consumers need and what they want to buy. While households remain focused on value and essentials, our data is tracking sustained growth in more desire-driven categories, whether that’s functional health products, beauty tech, or purchases made through social discovery.
“The retailers that will outperform are those that recognise and strategically respond to this duality. It’s no longer enough to optimise for essential spend alone, success will come from understanding where consumers are wanting to trade up, treat themselves, or invest in performance and wellbeing.”
This follows CACI’s announcement that independent retailers may hold the key in winning back lapsed high street shoppers, with 29% of shoppers indicating that a higher prevalence of independent stores would encourage them to visit more often.
