It was the three month lockdown at the start of 2021 that had a severe impact on the retail sector and its recovery from 2020, according to retail analyst Springboard’s annual retail review.
Springboard has examined trends over two key periods: Lockdown (January to March 2021) and post Lockdown (April to December 2021).
It has revealed that footfall across all UK retail destinations was –31.1% lower than in 2019, up from -39.1% in 2020, with retail parks continuing to display a notable resilience than either high streets or shopping centres in retaining footfall.
Springboard identified that Lockdown 3 (6 January-12 April) had a ‘dramatic effect’ on footfall across all destination types overall. The clear winners for footfall over the period were retail parks with footfall dropping -33.9% below the 2019 level compared to -69.4% in high streets and -71% in shopping centres.
In 2021, working from home for at least part of the week became firmly established and cemented the growth of localism, a trend identified in 2020.
Springboard’s UK Consumer Survey identified that 57% of consumers worked at least part of the week at home in 2021, and that 24% of these consumers visited retail destinations less frequently. This resulted in a proportionately greater reduction in footfall in large city centres than in more local high streets, as consumers were able to visit these easily from home during the working week.
In 2021, as a percentage of total retail sales, online sales averaged at 30%, increasing from 2020 when it averaged 27.2%. Online sales increased during Lockdown 3 – to 35.7% between January and March, but fell back to 28.1% between April and December.
The reported noted that consumer confidence index score as measured by GFK improved significantly in 2021 from 2020, shifting from an overall index score of -26 in 2020 to -15 in 2021.
Springboard identified a number of key trends that they forecast will play out in 2022. Most significantly is the maturity of the hybrid office/home working model which it anticipates will result in a greater number of retail visits in the evening and at the weekend, longer dwell times and an increase in the combination of shopping and dining as the prospect of going out after a work day at home is more attractive.
Retailers can also expect a continuation of the migration of spend online to continue throughout 2022, although it predicts that as consumers feel more confident with regard to the risks associated with Covid, a proportion of this will shift back to stores.
Diane Wehrle, insights director at Springboard commented: “The experience of three lockdowns has taught us is that the need for human interaction and sensory satisfaction that we highlighted in the 2020 review really does drive visits and spend in stores and destinations.
She added: “It is clear that whilst retailing was impacted by Covid in 2021, the roll out of the vaccine programme has been a game changer. In our review of 2020 we were forecasting that we would need to break down 2021 into two key parts – pre-vaccine and post-vaccine – and largely this is what has happened.
“With the rapid roll out of the vaccine in 2021, bricks and mortar has weathered the storm of two new variants, with footfall strengthening every month until December when the government issued Plan B guidance to work from home which took the froth off of the expected uplift in footfall and sales during the crucial Christmas trading period.”
